By Carol Paton

Thabo Mbeki has always had a thing about history: he wants to make it.

Next week he might. If things go his way at the ANC conference, he will be party president of the ANC when it celebrates its centenary. It is more likely, though, that he will be the first sitting president of the ANC to be defeated in an election in 55 years. This is not the sort of history he had in mind.

For a man who has, both inside and outside the ANC, engineered such smooth and decisive electoral victories, how did it go so wrong?

The biggest mistake was to stand for election in the first place. Mbeki and his acolytes argue that no-one else from his camp is strong enough to defeat Zuma. The opposite is true. Countless ANC leaders in parliament and the provinces say they will vote for Zuma because they want Mbeki removed.

One wonders why none of Mbeki’s colleagues or friends has had the appetite to talk him out of it. Where were the likes of Saki Macozoma, Trevor Manuel or Joel Netshitenzhe when it came to the ANC’s hallmark collective approach to leadership? Many senior leaders in the cabinet and the ANC national executive committee (NEC) distanced themselves from the process, leaving it to less senior figures – such as deputy defence minister Mluleki George and ANC Youth League leader Andile Nkuhlu.

Mbeki’s critics say his failure to see the outcome is due to personality flaws, including an arrogance which has blind-sided him time and again. Says one: “He never imagined ANC members could choose a peasant from Nkandla above him, with all his accomplishments and intellectual prowess.”

Mbeki believed he could win because he – and the mainstream of the ANC – always had before. Controversial decisions like the demobilisation of Umkhonto we Sizwe and the suspension of sanctions prior to 1994 saw a handful of leaders sway a mass membership. Mbeki believed he could do it again.

He has also made serious political miscalculations in his re-election campaign. He counted on three things:

• The first was that ANC members would always make “rational and correct decisions”. These are the words used by individuals like Netshitenzhe over the past two years to explain why they were not panicked by Zuma’s popular mobilisation. As a result, Mbeki allies left their campaign very late. While Zuma’s cabinet supporters, such as housing minister Lindiwe Sisulu and deputy safety & security minister Susan Shabangu, are said to have worked hard behind the scenes, Mbeki’s ministers, with the exception of defence minister Mosiuoa Lekota, were aloof from lobbying.

As it has turned out, ANC members are neither rational nor unemotional in their choices. Their desire for change has proved a stronger underlying motivation than arguments for good governance.

• Mbeki’s second miscalculation was to count on the women’s vote. His promotion of women to his cabinet and high-ranking positions in provinces and cities has been a hallmark of his presidency. Contrast this with Zuma’s rape charge, and it would seem obvious that women would vote for Mbeki. Indeed, it appears that in the ANC Women’s League, which voted 29-25 for Zuma, the elite strata did back Mbeki. But for the grassroots, the affinity for Zuma and the desire for change was far stronger.

• Third, Mbeki counted on winning the Eastern Cape. As embarrassing as it would be for the ANC to admit, both sides used tribalism. While Zuma had KwaZulu Natal wrapped up and had been working on his support in the Eastern Cape for more than a year, Mbeki seemed to assume that in a matter of months he would pull back the province. But it was only the southern part that went his way. In Pondoland – where Mbeki had in the past relied on the late Stella Sigcau, a royal, to rally support – he was roundly defeated.

The biggest miscalculation, though, was underestimating the desire among the ANC base for change. This desire was a combination of dissatisfaction from the provinces, which had for nearly 10 years been on the receiving end of his political interference; dissatisfaction from ANC parliamentarians tired of the undermining of the institution by the executive; political dissatisfaction of the Left, marginalised since 1996; and the bitterness of a broad range of aggrieved individuals angry about unfair treatment. Add the axing of Zuma from the cabinet (and later, popular deputy health minister Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge), and the anti-Mbeki alliance was cemented.

In the wake of this general dissatisfaction, political battles over economic policy which Mbeki had won by hook or by crook since 1996 came back to bite him. As the picture of the leadership race became clearer over the past few months, Mbeki resorted to dangerous tactics.

One of the most shocking was the removal of Vusi Pikoli as national director of public prosecutions just as he was poised to take action against national police commissioner and Mbeki ally Jackie Selebi. Mbeki’s refusal to act against Selebi – despite the national prosecuting authority having a case against him – was a sign of desperation.

Equally bad was the manipulation of the appointment of the SABC board by individuals whom ANC parliamentarians believe to be acting on behalf of Mbeki. The caucus was told whom to vote for as board nominees by a letter purportedly from the top six ANC office-bearers.

But at least two of those officials – Lekota and secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe – say the body took no such decision. The letter proved to have been written by Mbeki ally, deputy secretary-general Sankie Mthembi-Mahanyele.

Allegations of vote-buying by the Mbeki camp are rife. To name only one: Western Cape members claim a Karoo ANC “kingmaker” paid R150 000 to vote the right way at a regional conference.

From their side, the Mbeki camp allege fraud in the nominations process. Complaints have been laid to the NEC that Motlanthe allowed regional officials, who don’t have voting rights at conference, to vote in the provincial general council meetings. Fraud is also alleged in Gauteng. In the Northern Cape, some branches were allegedly excluded from the nomination process.

By early next week, the presidential election will be all over bar the shouting. For SA it is an important moment but for Mbeki, his biggest: come the vote, his place in the hagiography of ANC presidents will be determined.