By Carol Paton

Will Jacob Zuma and his allies have a winner-takes-all approach to the election of the all-powerful ANC national executive committee at this month’s national conference?

If so, some of the most respected figures in the ANC could be in danger of being excluded. These include ANC strategist and head of policy in the presidency Joel Netshitenzhe and long-standing and respected ANC leaders Pallo Jordan and Zola Skweyiya.

Most serving cabinet ministers are excluded from the current version of the “Youth League list”, as Zuma’s list is known. Others have been placed low on the list, raising fears that they might not get enough votes to make it into one of the 60 additional places on the executive.

Two new developments will make it even harder for experienced leadership to get elected this time around: first is the proposal to raise the quota of female members from 33% to 50%, which will have the effect of “sacrificing” men who come in near the bottom of the list; and second Cosatu has asked for changes to the “Youth League list” to accommodate more trade unionists and communists.

This will make competition for places on the executive even tighter.

It’s only if the size of the NEC is expanded from 60 to 80 that the pressure for places could be eased. The ANC policy conference left this decision open and the ANC NEC has not pronounced on the issue.

Due to the extreme polarisation of the ANC, it is not known whether branch delegates will stick to the lists circulated by the two factions or whether they will vote for more rational choices.

Jordan, one of the ANC’s most respected intellectuals, is low down on the Zuma list. He describes the faction-based lists as a “novelty”.

“There’s no evidence that in the past people’s preferences were determined by lists. But it might happen that this time, because of the polarisation, people might vote for lists,” he says.

Other seasoned ANC leaders are more worried. “As things stand, someone like Joel might not get in. With the 50% quota for women coming in, you could find some problematic exclusions. Both lists are quite weak with some odd people included,” says an ANC MP.

Judging by events in Gauteng, a Johannesburg ANC leader says he expects “the winner will take all”. He adds: “I can’t see the NEC being decided in a sober manner. The battle lines are drawn.”

Netshitenzhe’s name was removed from the provincial nomination list in KwaZulu Natal, and former and serving premiers Manne Dipico and Dipuo Peters from that of the Northern Cape.

Mbhazima Shilowa, who has openly aligned himself with President Thabo Mbeki, also occupies a lowly position on the early iterations of the Zuma list.

He warns against a “short-sighted approach of exclusions”, but adds: “If I am one of those, I won’t feel disheartened. At least I took a stand and if that is treason, then so be it.”

Shilowa also warns those “who think they are in the ascendency” not to take their victories for granted by refusing to engage in horse-trading over the NEC.

Even if individuals such as Netshitenzhe and Jordan make it onto the NEC, it is clear that a long list of the incumbents - many of them cabinet ministers - won’t. Mbeki has been heavily criticised for packing the NEC with ex-officio members whom he appointed. ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe has contemptuously described the serving NEC as a group of people concerned only about their own jobs.

A new version of the Zuma list is expected to be released soon. Early versions of the list punt a vastly different composition of the NEC and include a wide range of provincial politicians and members of parliament, most of whom have been active in the Zuma campaign.

Rather than placing established national leadership at the top of the list, the list was topped by ANC Youth League leader and MP Thandi Tobias; MP and Travelgate accused Nyami Booi; former director-general of intelligence Billy Masetlha and former ANC chief whip Tony Yengeni. Their track records bode ill for anyone outside the Zuma camp.